Women in the Medical Physics Workforce: Insights from Membership Trends of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine, 1993 to 2023.

PURPOSE: Women remain underrepresented in medical physics in the United States, and determinants of persisting disparities remain unclear. Here, we performed a detailed investigation of American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) membership trajectories to evaluate trends in Full membership with respect to gender, age, and highest degree. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Membership data, including gender, date of birth, highest degree, membership type, and years of active membership for 1993 to 2023 were obtained from AAPM. Group 1 included Full members who joined AAPM in 1993 or later. A subset of group 1 including only members who joined and left AAPM since 1993 (former members, group 1F) was used to calculate age at membership cessation and duration. Results were compared by gender and highest degree. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was also used to evaluate membership "survival" by age and highest degree. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 6647 current and former Full members (group 1), including 2211 former members (group 1F). On average, women became Full members at a significantly younger age than men (34.6 vs 37.5 years of age, P < .001) and ended their memberships (if applicable) at a significantly younger age than men (46.1 vs 50.1 years of age, P < .001). The Kaplan-Meier "survival" analysis showed that for a given age, women were at a significantly greater risk of membership cessation than men, and women with master's degrees had the lowest membership survival of any gender/degree subgroup. When analyzing by membership duration, there was no difference in survival by gender alone. Still, women with PhDs were found to have the greatest membership survival among gender/degree subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both gender and degree type influenced AAPM membership trajectories. Although we have offered a discussion of possible explanations, qualitative data collected from both continuing and departing AAPM members will be critical in the ongoing journey toward gender parity in the profession of medical physics.

Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials of p16-positive squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The increased incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers has motivated efforts to optimise treatment for these patients with excellent prognosis. Validation of surrogates for overall survival could expedite the investigation of new therapies. We sought to evaluate candidate intermediate clinical endpoints in trials assessing definitive treatment of p16-positive oropharyngeal cancer with chemotherapy or radiotherapy. METHODS: We did a retrospective review of five multicentre, randomised trials (NRG/RTOG 9003, 0129, 0234, 0522, and 1016) that tested radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy in patients (aged ≥18 years) with p16-positive localised head or neck squamous-cell carcinomas. Eight intermediate clinical endpoints were considered as potential surrogates for overall survival: freedom from local progression, freedom from regional progression, freedom from distant metastasis, freedom from locoregional progression, freedom from any progression, locoregional progression-free survival, progression-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival. We used a two-stage meta-analytical framework, which requires high correlation between the intermediate clinical endpoint and overall survival at the patient level (condition 1), and high correlation between the treatment effect on the intermediate clinical endpoint and the treatment effect on overall survival (condition 2). For both, an r2 greater than 0·7 was used as criteria for clinically relevant surrogacy. FINDINGS: We analysed 1373 patients with oropharyngeal cancer from May 9, 2020, to Nov 22, 2023. 1231 (90%) of patients were men, 142 (10%) were women, and 1207 (88%) were White, with a median age of 57 years (IQR 51-62). Median follow-up was 4·2 years (3·1-5·1). For the first condition, correlating the intermediate clinical endpoints with overall survival at the individual and trial level, the three composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·91 and r2 0·72), distant metastasis-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·93 and r2 0·83), and progression-free survival (Kendall's τ 0·88 and r2 0·70) were highly correlated with overall survival at the patient level and at the trial-group level. For the second condition, correlating treatment effects of the intermediate clinical endpoints and overall survival, the composite endpoints of locoregional progression-free survival (r2 0·88), distant metastasis-free survival (r2 0·96), and progression-free survival (r2 0·92) remained strong surrogates. Treatment effects on the remaining intermediate clinical endpoints were less strongly correlated with overall survival. INTERPRETATION: We identified locoregional progression-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and progression-free survival as surrogates for overall survival in p16-positive oropharyngeal cancers treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy, which could serve as clinical trial endpoints. FUNDING: NRG Oncology Operations, NRG Oncology SDMC, the National Cancer Institute, Eli Lilly, Aventis, and the University of Michigan.

Predictors of Acute and Late Toxicity in Patients Receiving Chemoradiation for Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer.

Purpose: Patients with pancreatic cancer undergoing chemoradiation therapy may experience acute and chronic side effects. We conducted an exploratory analysis of patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) undergoing definitive chemoradiation to identify factors influencing the occurrence of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, short-term radiation side effects, patterns of failure, and survival. Methods and Materials: Under an institutional review board-approved protocol, we retrospectively studied patients with LAPC treated with chemoradiation. Statistical models were used to test associations between clinical characteristics and outcomes, including upper GI bleeding, radiation treatment breaks, and weight loss during therapy. Results: Between 1999 and 2012, 211 patients were treated with radiation for pancreatic cancer. All patients received concurrent chemotherapy with either gemcitabine (174) or 5-fluorouracil (27), and 67 received intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Overall, 18 patients experienced an upper GI bleed related to treatment, with 70% of bleeds occurring in the stomach or duodenum, and among those patients, 11 (61%) patients had a pancreatic head tumor and 17 (94%) patients had a metallic biliary stent. IMRT was associated with decreased risk of postradiation nausea (odds ratio, 0.27 [0.11, 0.67], P = .006) compared with 3-dimensional conformal radiation. Regarding long-term toxicities, patients with a metallic biliary stent at the time of radiation therapy were at a significantly higher risk of developing upper GI bleeding (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 15.41 [2.02, 117.42], P = .008), even after controlling for radiation treatment modality and prescribed radiation dose (adjusted HR, 17.38 [2.26, 133.58], P = .006). Furthermore, biliary stent placement was associated with a higher risk of death (HR, 1.99 [1.41, 2.83], P < .001) after adjusting for demographic, treatment-related, and patient-related variables. Conclusions: Metallic biliary stents may be associated with an increased risk of upper GI bleeding and mortality. Furthermore, IMRT was associated with less nausea and short-term toxicity compared with 3-dimensional conformal therapy.

Single-Time-Point Imaging for Dosimetry After [177Lu]Lu-DOTATATE: Accuracy of Existing Methods and Novel Data-Driven Models for Reducing Sensitivity to Time-Point Selection.

Estimation of the time-integrated activity (TIA) for dosimetry from imaging at a single time point (STP) facilitates the clinical translation of dosimetry-guided radiopharmaceutical therapy. However, the accuracy of the STP methods for TIA estimation varies on the basis of time-point selection. We constructed patient data-driven regression models to reduce the sensitivity to time-point selection and to compare these new models with commonly used STP methods. Methods: SPECT/CT performed at time period (TP) 1 (3-5 h), TP2 (days 1-2), TP3 (days 3-5), and TP4 (days 6-8) after cycle 1 of [177Lu]Lu-DOTATATE therapy involved 27 patients with 100 segmented tumors and 54 kidneys. Influenced by the previous physics-based STP models of Madsen et al. and Hänscheid et al., we constructed an STP prediction expression, TIA = A(t) × g(t), in a SPECT data-driven way (model 1), in which A(t) is the observed activity at imaging time t, and the curve, g(t), is estimated with a nonparametric generalized additive model by minimizing the normalized mean square error relative to the TIA derived from 4-time-point SPECT (reference TIA). Furthermore, we fit a generalized additive model that incorporates baseline biomarkers as auxiliary data in addition to the single activity measurement (model 2). Leave-one-out cross validation was performed to evaluate STP models using mean absolute error (MAE) and mean square error between the predicted and reference TIA. Results: At days 3-5, all evaluated STP methods performed very well, with an MAE of less than 7% (between-patient SD of <10%) for both kidneys and tumors. At other TPs, the Madsen method and data-driven models 1 and 2 performed reasonably well (MAEs < 17% for kidneys and < 32% for tumors), whereas the error with the Hänscheid method was substantially higher. The proof of concept of adding baseline biomarkers to the prediction model was demonstrated and showed a moderate enhancement at TP1, especially for estimating kidney TIA (MAE ± SD from 15.6% ± 1.3% to 11.8% ± 1.0%). Evaluations on 500 virtual patients using clinically relevant time-activity simulations showed a similar performance. Conclusion: The performance of the Madsen method and proposed data-driven models is less sensitive to TP selection than is the Hänscheid method. At the earliest TP, which is the most practical, the model incorporating baseline biomarkers outperforms other methods that rely only on the single activity measurement.

Efficacy of a Second Course of Radiation for Patients With Metachronous Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Liver-directed radiation therapy is an effective treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but metachronous lesions develop outside the irradiated field in >50% of patients. We hypothesized that irradiation of these new lesions would produce an outcome like that of patients receiving a first course (C1) of treatment. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We included patients with HCC who received a second course (C2) of radiation therapy >1 month after C1. Toxicity was defined as Child-Pugh score increase ≥2 within 6 months posttreatment (binary model) and as the change in albumin-bilirubin during the year after treatment (longitudinal model). Overall survival (OS) and local failure (LF) were captured at the patient and lesion level, respectively; both were summarized with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Predictors of toxicity and OS were assessed using generalized linear mixed and Cox regression models, respectively. RESULTS: Of 340 patients with HCC, 47 underwent irradiation for metachronous HCC, receiving similar prescription dose in C1/C2. Median follow-up was 17 months after C1 and 15 months after C2. Twenty-two percent of patients experienced toxicity after C1, and 25% experienced toxicity after C2. Worse baseline albumin-bilirubin predicted toxicity in both binary (odds ratio, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.46-3.94; P = .0005) and longitudinal models (P < .005). Two-year LF rate was 11.2% after C1 and 8.3% after C2; tumor dose (hazard ratio [HR], 0.982; 95% CI, 0.969-0.995; P = .007) and tumor size (HR, 1.135; 95% CI, 1.068-1.206; P < .005) predicted LF. Two-year OS was 46.0% after C1 and 42.6% after C2; tumor dose (HR, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.979-0.992; P < .005) and tumor size (HR, 1.049; 95% CI, 1.010-1.088; P = .0124) predicted OS. Reirradiation was not associated with toxicity (P > .7), LF (P = .79), or OS (P = .39). CONCLUSIONS: In this largest series in the Western hemisphere, we demonstrate that irradiation for metachronous HCC offers low rates of LF with acceptable toxicity and OS like that of patients receiving a C1. These findings support judicious selection of patients for reirradiation in metachronous HCC.

177Lu-DOTATATE Theranostics: Predicting Renal Dosimetry From Pretherapy 68Ga-DOTATATE PET and Clinical Biomarkers.

PURPOSE: Pretreatment predictions of absorbed doses can be especially valuable for patient selection and dosimetry-guided individualization of radiopharmaceutical therapy. Our goal was to build regression models using pretherapy 68Ga-DOTATATE PET uptake data and other baseline clinical factors/biomarkers to predict renal absorbed dose delivered by 177Lu-DOTATATE peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (177Lu-PRRT) for neuroendocrine tumors. We explore the combination of biomarkers and 68Ga PET uptake metrics, hypothesizing that they will improve predictive power over univariable regression. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Pretherapy 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/CTs were analyzed for 25 patients (50 kidneys) who also underwent quantitative 177Lu SPECT/CT imaging at approximately 4, 24, 96, and 168 hours after cycle 1 of 177Lu-PRRT. Kidneys were contoured on the CT of the PET/CT and SPECT/CT using validated deep learning-based tools. Dosimetry was performed by coupling the multi-time point SPECT/CT images with an in-house Monte Carlo code. Pretherapy renal PET SUV metrics, activity concentration per injected activity (Bq/mL/MBq), and other baseline clinical factors/biomarkers were investigated as predictors of the 177Lu SPECT/CT-derived mean absorbed dose per injected activity to the kidneys using univariable and bivariable models. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was used to estimate model performance using root mean squared error and absolute percent error in predicted renal absorbed dose including mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and associated standard deviation (SD). RESULTS: The median therapy-delivered renal dose was 0.5 Gy/GBq (range, 0.2-1.0 Gy/GBq). In LOOCV of univariable models, PET uptake (Bq/mL/MBq) performs best with MAPE of 18.0% (SD = 13.3%), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) gives an MAPE of 28.5% (SD = 19.2%). Bivariable regression with both PET uptake and eGFR gives LOOCV MAPE of 17.3% (SD = 11.8%), indicating minimal improvement over univariable models. CONCLUSIONS: Pretherapy 68Ga-DOTATATE PET renal uptake can be used to predict post-177Lu-PRRT SPECT-derived mean absorbed dose to the kidneys with accuracy within 18%, on average. Compared with PET uptake alone, including eGFR in the same model to account for patient-specific kinetics did not improve predictive power. Following further validation of these preliminary findings in an independent cohort, predictions using renal PET uptake can be used in the clinic for patient selection and individualization of treatment before initiating the first cycle of PRRT.

Prospective Evaluation of Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer Radiotherapy Fractionation Regimen Usage and Acute Toxicity in a Large Statewide Quality Collaborative.

PURPOSE: National guidelines on limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) treatment give preference to a hyperfractionated regimen of 45 Gy in 30 fractions delivered twice daily; however, use of this regimen is uncommon compared with once-daily regimens. The purpose of this study was to characterize the LS-SCLC fractionation regimens used throughout a statewide collaborative, analyze patient and treatment factors associated with these regimens, and describe real-world acute toxicity profiles of once- and twice-daily radiation therapy (RT) regimens. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Demographic, clinical, and treatment data along with physician-assessed toxicity and patient-reported outcomes were prospectively collected by 29 institutions within the Michigan Radiation Oncology Quality Consortium between 2012 and 2021 for patients with LS-SCLC. We modeled the influence of RT fractionation and other patient-level variables clustered by treatment site on the odds of a treatment break specifically due to toxicity with multilevel logistic regression. National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0, incident grade 2 or worse toxicity was longitudinally compared between regimens. RESULTS: There were 78 patients (15.6% overall) treated with twice-daily RT and 421 patients treated with once-daily RT. Patients receiving twice-daily RT were more likely to be married or living with someone (65% vs 51%; P = .019) and to have no major comorbidities (24% vs 10%; P = .017). Once-daily RT fractionation toxicity peaked during RT, and twice-daily toxicity peaked within 1 month after RT. After stratifying by treatment site and adjusting for patient-level variables, once-daily treated patients had 4.11 (95% confidence interval, 1.31-12.87) higher odds of treatment break specifically due to toxicity than twice-daily treated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperfractionation for LS-SCLC remains infrequently prescribed despite the lack of evidence demonstrating superior efficacy or lower toxicity of once-daily RT. With peak acute toxicity after RT and lower likelihood of a treatment break with twice-daily fractionation in real-word practice, providers may start using hyperfractionated RT more frequently.

Initial Feasibility and Acute Toxicity Outcomes From a Phase 2 Trial of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Response-Based De-escalated Definitive Chemoradiotherapy for p16+ Oropharynx Cancer: A Planned Interim Analysis.

PURPOSE: 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) parameters are prognostic of oncologic outcomes in human papillomavirus-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). We used FDG-PET imaging biomarkers to select patients for de-escalated chemoradiotherapy (CRT), hypothesizing that acute toxicity will be improved with de-escalation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This is a planned interim initial feasibility and acute toxicity report from a phase 2, prospective, nonrandomized study, which enrolled patients with stage I-II p16+ OPSCC. All patients started definitive CRT to 70 Gy in 35 fractions, and those who met de-escalation criteria on midtreatment FDG-PET at fraction 10 completed treatment at 54 Gy in 27 fractions. We report the acute toxicity and patient-reported outcomes for 59 patients with a minimum follow-up of 3 months. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between baseline patient characteristics in the standard and de-escalated cohorts. There were 28 of 59 (47.5%) patients who met FDG-PET de-escalation criteria and collectively received 20% to 30% less dose to critical organs at risk known to affect toxicity. At 3 months posttreatment, patients who received de-escalated CRT lost significantly less weight (median, 5.8% vs 13.0%; P < .001), had significantly less change from baseline in penetration-aspiration scale score (median, 0 vs 1; P = .018), and had significantly fewer aspiration events on repeat swallow study (8.0% vs 33.3%, P = .037) compared with patients receiving standard CRT. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with early-stage p16+ OPSCC are selected for de-escalation of definitive CRT using midtreatment FDG-PET biomarkers, which resulted in significantly improved rates of observed acute toxicity. Further follow-up is ongoing and will be required to determine whether this de-escalation approach preserves the favorable oncologic outcomes for patients with p16+ OPSCC before adoption.

Magnetic prestressing for a d32-mode single crystal ultrasonic transducer.

This work describes a 35.9 kHz ultrasonic transducer that incorporates a magnetic arrangement to apply a static-compressive prestress to a d32-mode relaxor ferroelectric single crystal drive-element. The magnetic arrangement produces a 22.5 N static-compressive force, inducing a static compression of ∼630 nm on the drive-element. Operating in air with a continuous-wave 10 V peak drive at ∼35.9 kHz, the measured resonant peak displacement of the transducers head-mass was 127 nm. This is well within the predicted static compression, thus, the drive-element is protected from damaging tensile stress. Under the same drive conditions and at an axial distance of 10 mm from the face of the head-mass, the measured acoustic pressure was ∼12 Pa. Analytical and finite element model predictions and the measured behaviour of a prototype device are presented and show good correlation, demonstrating that magnetic prestressing of the drive-element can be a viable alternative to the traditional bolt-clamp.

Meta-Analysis of Candidate Surrogate End Points in Advanced Prostate Cancer.

Meta-Analysis of Surrogate End Points in Prostate CancerGharzai et al. report on the results of a meta-analysis, which concludes that unlike the case in localized prostate cancer, surrogate end points in advanced prostate cancer may not track overall survival.

Predictors of Early Hospice or Death in Patients With Inoperable Lung Cancer Treated With Curative Intent.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment for inoperable stage II to III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) involves chemo-radiotherapy (CRT). However, some patients transition to hospice or die early during their treatment course. We present a model to prognosticate early poor outcomes in NSCLC patients treated with curative-intent CRT. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Across a statewide consortium, data was prospectively collected on stage II to III NSCLC patients who received CRT between 2012 and 2019. Early poor outcomes included hospice enrollment or death within 3 months of completing CRT. Logistic regression models were used to assess predictors in prognostic models. LASSO regression with multiple imputation were used to build a final multivariate model, accounting for missing covariates. RESULTS: Of the 2267 included patients, 128 experienced early poor outcomes. Mean age was 71 years and 59% received concurrent chemotherapy. The best predictive model, created parsimoniously from statistically significant univariate predictors, included age, ECOG, planning target volume (PTV), mean heart dose, pretreatment lack of energy, and cough. The estimated area under the ROC curve for this multivariable model was 0.71, with a negative predictive value of 95%, specificity of 97%, positive predictive value of 23%, and sensitivity of 16% at a predicted risk threshold of 20%. CONCLUSIONS: This multivariate model identified a combination of clinical variables and patient reported factors that may identify individuals with inoperable NSCLC undergoing curative intent chemo-radiotherapy who are at higher risk for early poor outcomes.

Intra- and inter-operator variability in MRI-based manual segmentation of HCC lesions and its impact on dosimetry.

PURPOSE: The aim was to quantify inter- and intra-observer variability in manually delineated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) lesion contours and the resulting impact on radioembolization (RE) dosimetry. METHODS: Ten patients with HCC lesions treated with Y-90 RE and imaged with post-therapy Y-90 PET/CT were selected for retrospective analysis. Three radiologists contoured 20 lesions manually on baseline multiphase contrast-enhanced MRIs, and two of the radiologists re-contoured at two additional sessions. Contours were transferred to co-registered PET/CT-based Y-90 dose maps. Volume-dependent recovery coefficients were applied for partial volume correction (PVC) when reporting mean absorbed dose. To understand how uncertainty varies with tumor size, we fit power models regressing relative uncertainty in volume and in mean absorbed dose on contour volume. Finally, we determined effects of segmentation uncertainty on tumor control probability (TCP), as calculated using logistic models developed in a previous RE study. RESULTS: The average lesion volume ranged from 1.8 to 194.5 mL, and the mean absorbed dose ranged from 23.4 to 1629.0 Gy. The mean inter-observer Dice coefficient for lesion contours was significantly less than the mean intra-observer Dice coefficient (0.79 vs. 0.85, p < 0.001). Uncertainty in segmented volume, as measured by the Coefficient of Variation (CV), ranged from 4.2 to 34.7% with an average of 17.2%. The CV in mean absorbed dose had an average value of 5.4% (range 1.2-13.1%) without PVC while it was 15.1% (range 1.5-55.2%) with PVC. Using the fitted models for uncertainty as a function of volume on our prior data, the mean change in TCP due to segmentation uncertainty alone was estimated as 16.2% (maximum 48.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Though we find relatively high inter- and intra-observer reliability overall, uncertainty in tumor contouring propagates into non-negligible uncertainty in dose metrics and outcome prediction for individual cases that should be considered in dosimetry-guided treatment.

Direct incorporation of patient-specific efficacy and toxicity estimates in radiation therapy plan optimization.

PURPOSE: Current radiation therapy (RT) treatment planning relies mainly on pre-defined dose-based objectives and constraints to develop plans that aim to control disease while limiting damage to normal tissues during treatment. These objectives and constraints are generally population-based, in that they are developed from the aggregate response of a broad patient population to radiation. However, correlations of new biologic markers and patient-specific factors to treatment efficacy and toxicity provide the opportunity to further stratify patient populations and develop a more individualized approach to RT planning. We introduce a novel intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) optimization strategy that directly incorporates patient-specific dose response models into the planning process. In this strategy, we integrate the concept of utility-based planning where the optimization objective is to maximize the predicted value of overall treatment utility, defined by the probability of efficacy (e.g., local control) minus the weighted sum of toxicity probabilities. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we apply the strategy to treatment planning for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We developed a prioritized approach to patient-specific IMRT planning. Using a commercial treatment planning system (TPS), we calculate dose based on an influence matrix of beamlet-dose contributions to regions-of-interest. Then, outside of the TPS, we hierarchically solve two optimization problems to generate optimal beamlet weights that can then be imported back to the TPS. The first optimization problem maximizes a patient's overall plan utility subject to typical clinical dose constraints. In this process, we facilitate direct optimization of efficacy and toxicity trade-off based on individualized dose-response models. After optimal utility is determined, we solve a secondary optimization problem that minimizes a conventional dose-based objective subject to the same clinical dose constraints as the first stage but with the addition of a constraint to maintain the optimal utility from the first optimization solution. We tested this method by retrospectively generating plans for five previously treated NSCLC patients and comparing the prioritized utility plans to conventional plans optimized with only dose metric objectives. To define a plan utility function for each patient, we utilized previously published correlations of dose to local control and grade 3-5 toxicities that include patient age, stage, microRNA levels, and cytokine levels, among other clinical factors. RESULTS: The proposed optimization approach successfully generated RT plans for five NSCLC patients that improve overall plan utility based on personalized efficacy and toxicity models while accounting for clinical dose constraints. Prioritized utility plans demonstrated the largest average improvement in local control (16.6%) when compared to plans generated with conventional planning objectives. However, for some patients, the utility-based plans resulted in similar local control estimates with decreased estimated toxicity. CONCLUSION: The proposed optimization approach, where the maximization of a patient's RT plan utility is prioritized over the minimization of standardized dose metrics, has the potential to improve treatment outcomes by directly accounting for variability within a patient population. The implementation of the utility-based objective function offers an intuitive, humanized approach to biological optimization in which planning trade-offs are explicitly optimized.

Association between sustained virological response and clinical outcomes in patients with hepatitis C infection and hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Sustained viral response (SVR) improves survival for patients with hepatitis C (HCV) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative treatment; however, the benefit of SVR in those with active HCC with a significant competing risk of mortality is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the association between SVR and outcomes in patients with active HCC. METHODS: The authors performed a multicenter, retrospective cohort study including consecutive adults with HCV cirrhosis and treatment-naive HCC diagnosed between 2014 and 2018. Patients were stratified into two groups: active viremia (n = 431) and SVR before HCC diagnosis (n = 135). All patients underwent nonsurgical therapy as their initial treatment and were followed until liver transplantation, last follow-up, or death. The primary outcome was incident or worsening hepatic decompensation within 6 months and the secondary outcome was overall survival. All analyses used inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) to account for differences between the nonrandomized cohorts. RESULTS: Post-SVR patients had significantly lower odds of hepatic decompensation compared to viremic patients (odds ratio [OR], 0.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.59). Results were consistent among subgroups of patients with Child Pugh A cirrhosis (OR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.04-0.77), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B/C HCC (OR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.04-0.65), and those receiving nonablative HCC therapies (OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07-0.67). However, in IPTW multivariable Cox regression, SVR was not associated with improved survival (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.56-1.12). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HCV-related HCC and SVR are less likely to experience hepatic decompensation than viremic patients, suggesting patients with HCC who are undergoing nonsurgical therapies may benefit from DAA treatment.

Investigating the Incidence of Pulmonary Abnormalities as Identified by Parametric Response Mapping in Patients With Lung Cancer Before Radiation Treatment.

Purpose: Parametric response mapping (PRM) of high-resolution, paired inspiration and expiration computed tomography (CT) scans is a promising analytical imaging technique that is currently used in diagnostic applications and offers the ability to characterize and quantify certain pulmonary pathologies on a patient-specific basis. As one of the first studies to implement such a technique in the radiation oncology clinic, the goal of this work was to assess the feasibility for PRM analysis to identify pulmonary abnormalities in patients with lung cancer before radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: High-resolution, paired inspiration and expiration CT scans were acquired from 23 patients with lung cancer as part of routine treatment planning CT acquisition. When applied to the paired CT scans, PRM analysis classifies lung parenchyma, on a voxel-wise basis, as normal, small airways disease (SAD), emphysema, or parenchymal disease (PD). PRM classifications were quantified as a percent of total lung volume and were evaluated globally and regionally within the lung. Results: PRM analysis of pre-RT CT scans was successfully implemented using a workflow that produced patient-specific maps and quantified specific phenotypes of pulmonary abnormalities. Through this study, a large prevalence of SAD and PD was demonstrated in this lung cancer patient population, with global averages of 10% and 17%, respectively. Moreover, PRM-classified normal and SAD in the region with primary tumor involvement were found to be significantly different from global lung values. When present, elevated levels of PD and SAD abnormalities tended to be pervasive in multiple regions of the lung, indicating a large burden of underlying disease. Conclusions: Pulmonary abnormalities, as detected by PRM, were characterized in patients with lung cancer scheduled for RT. Although further study is needed, PRM is a highly accessible CT-based imaging technique that has the potential to identify local lung abnormalities associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease. Further investigation in the radiation oncology setting may provide strategies for tailoring RT planning and risk assessment based on pre-existing PRM-based pathology.

Biochemical Failure Is Not a Surrogate End Point for Overall Survival in Recurrent Prostate Cancer: Analysis of NRG Oncology/RTOG 9601.

PURPOSE: Metastasis-free survival (MFS), but not event-free survival, is a validated surrogate end point for overall survival (OS) in men treated for localized prostate cancer. It remains unknown if this holds true in biochemically recurrent disease after radical prostatectomy. Leveraging NRG/RTOG 9601, we aimed to determine the performance of intermediate clinical end points (ICEs) as surrogate end points for OS in recurrent prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: NRG/RTOG 9601 randomly assigned 760 men with recurrence after prostatectomy to salvage radiation therapy with 2 years of placebo versus bicalutamide 150 mg daily. ICEs assessed were biochemical failure (BF) per NRG/RTOG 9601 (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 0.3-0.5 ng/mL or initiation of salvage hormone therapy; [BF1]) and NRG/RTOG 0534 (prostate-specific antigen nadir+2 ng/mL; [BF2]), distant metastasis (DM), and MFS (DM or death). Surrogacy was assessed by the Prentice criteria and a two-stage meta-analytic approach (condition one assessed at the patient level with Kendall's τ and condition two assessed by randomly dividing the entire trial cohort into 10 pseudo trial centers and calculating the average R2 between treatment hazard ratios for ICE and OS). RESULTS: BF1, BF2, DM, and MFS satisfied the four Prentice criteria. However, with the two-condition meta-analytic approach, there was strong correlation between MFS and OS (τ = 0.86), moderate correlation between DM and OS (τ = 0.66), and weaker correlation between BF1 (τ = 0.25) or BF2 (τ = 0.40) and OS. Similarly, for condition two, the treatment effect of antiandrogen therapy on MFS and OS were correlated (R2 = 0.67), but this was not true for BF1 (R2 = 0.09), BF2 (R2 = 0.12), or DM (R2 = 0.18) and OS. CONCLUSION: MFS is also a strong surrogate for OS in men receiving salvage radiation therapy for recurrence after prostatectomy. Caution should be used when inferring survival benefit from effects on BF in biochemically recurrent prostate cancer. Lack of comorbidity data did not allow us to assess whether BF in men with no/minimal comorbidity could serve as a surrogate for OS.

Improved prediction of radiation pneumonitis by combining biological and radiobiological parameters using a data-driven Bayesian network analysis.

Grade 2 and higher radiation pneumonitis (RP2) is a potentially fatal toxicity that limits efficacy of radiation therapy (RT). We wished to identify a combined biomarker signature of circulating miRNAs and cytokines which, along with radiobiological and clinical parameters, may better predict a targetable RP2 pathway. In a prospective clinical trial of response-adapted RT for patients (n = 39) with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer, we analyzed patients' plasma, collected pre- and during RT, for microRNAs (miRNAs) and cytokines using array and multiplex enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), respectively. Interactions between candidate biomarkers, radiobiological, and clinical parameters were analyzed using data-driven Bayesian network (DD-BN) analysis. We identified alterations in specific miRNAs (miR-532, -99b and -495, let-7c, -451 and -139-3p) correlating with lung toxicity. High levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor alpha receptor 1 (sTNFR1) were detected in a majority of lung cancer patients. However, among RP patients, within 2 weeks of RT initiation, we noted a trend of temporary decline in sTNFR1 (a physiological scavenger of TNFα) and ADAM17 (a shedding protease that cleaves both membrane-bound TNFα and TNFR1) levels. Cytokine signature identified activation of inflammatory pathway. Using DD-BN we combined miRNA and cytokine data along with generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) to identify pathways with better accuracy of predicting RP2 as compared to either miRNA or cytokines alone. This signature suggests that activation of the TNFα-NFκB inflammatory pathway plays a key role in RP which could be specifically ameliorated by etanercept rather than current therapy of non-specific leukotoxic corticosteroids.

Development and validation of a life expectancy calculator for US patients with prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an accurate, usable prediction model for other-cause mortality (OCM) in patients with prostate cancer diagnosed in the United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Model training was performed using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2010 including men aged >40 years with follow-up to the year 2014. The model was validated in the Prostate, Lung, Colon, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial prostate cancer cohort, which enrolled patients between 1993 and 2001 with follow-up to the year 2015. Time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and calibration were assessed in the validation cohort. Analyses were performed to assess algorithmic bias. RESULTS: The 2420 patient training cohort had 459 deaths over a median follow-up of 8.8 years among survivors. The final model included eight predictors: age; education; marital status; diabetes; hypertension; stroke; body mass index; and smoking. It had an AUC of 0.75 at 10 years for predicting OCM in the validation cohort of 8220 patients. The final model significantly outperformed the Social Security Administration life tables and showed adequate predictive performance across race, educational attainment, and marital status subgroups. There is evidence of major variability in life expectancy that is not captured by age, with life expectancy predictions differing by 10 or more years among patients of the same age. CONCLUSION: Using two national cohorts, we have developed and validated a simple and useful prediction model for OCM for patients with prostate cancer treated in the United States, which will allow for more personalized treatment in accordance with guidelines.

Utility based approach in individualized optimal dose selection using machine learning methods.

The goal in personalized medicine is to individualize treatment using patient characteristics and improve health outcomes. Selection of optimal dose must balance the effect of dose on both treatment efficacy and toxicity outcomes. We consider a setting with one binary efficacy and one binary toxicity outcome. The goal is to find the optimal dose for each patient using clinical features and biomarkers from available dataset. We propose to use flexible machine learning methods such as random forest and Gaussian process models to build models for efficacy and toxicity depending on dose and biomarkers. A copula is used to model the joint distribution of the two outcomes and the estimates are constrained to have non-decreasing dose-efficacy and dose-toxicity relationships. Numerical utilities are elicited from clinicians for each potential bivariate outcome. For each patient, the optimal dose is chosen to maximize the posterior mean of the utility function. We also propose alternative approaches to optimal dose selection by adding additional toxicity based constraints and an approach taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of the utility function. The proposed methods are evaluated in a simulation study to compare expected utility outcomes under various estimated optimal dose rules. Gaussian process models tended to have better performance than random forest. Enforcing monotonicity during modeling provided small benefits. Whether and how, correlation between efficacy and toxicity, was modeled, had little effect on performance. The proposed methods are illustrated with a study of patients with liver cancer treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy.